Winner's curse

Tendency to overestimate in auctions

The winner's curse is a phenomenon that may occur in common value auctions, where all bidders have the same value for an item but receive different private signals about this value and wherein the winner is the bidder with the most optimistic evaluation of the asset and therefore will tend to overestimate and overpay. Accordingly, the winner will be "cursed" in one of two ways: either the winning bid will exceed the value of the auctioned asset making the winner worse off in absolute terms, or the value of the asset will be less than the bidder anticipated, so the bidder may garner a net gain but will be worse off than anticipated. However, an actual overpayment will generally occur only if the winner fails to account for the winner's curse when bidding.

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