Earthquake forecasting

Branch of seismology

Earthquake forecasting is a branch of the science of seismology concerned with the probabilistic assessment of general earthquake seismic hazard, including the frequency and magnitude of damaging earthquakes in a given area over years or decades. While forecasting is usually considered to be a type of prediction, earthquake forecasting is often differentiated from earthquake prediction, Earthquake forecasting estimates the likelihood of earthquakes in a specific timeframe and region, while earthquake prediction attempts to pinpoint the exact time, location, and magnitude of an impending quake, which is currently not reliably achievable.Wood & Gutenberg (1935). Kagan says: "This definition has several defects which contribute to confusion and difficulty in prediction research." In addition to specification of time, location, and magnitude, Allen suggested three other requirements: 4) indication of the author's confidence in the prediction, 5) the chance of an earthquake occurring anyway as a random event, and 6) publication in a form that gives failures the same visibility as successes. Kagan & Knopoff define prediction "to be a formal rule where by the available space-time-seismic moment manifold of earthquake occurrence is significantly contracted ...."</ref> Both forecasting and prediction of earthquakes are distinguished from earthquake warning systems, which, upon detection of an earthquake, provide a real-time warning to regions that might be affected.

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