Optional stopping theorem

A martingale's expected value at a stopping time equals its initial expected value

In probability theory, the optional stopping theorem says that, under certain conditions, the expected value of a martingale at a stopping time is equal to its initial expected value. Since martingales can be used to model the wealth of a gambler participating in a fair game, the optional stopping theorem says that, on average, nothing can be gained by stopping play based on the information obtainable so far. Certain conditions are necessary for this result to hold true. In particular, the theorem applies to doubling strategies.

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