Substitution model

Model of changes in a sequence over evolutionary time

In biology, a substitution model, also called models of sequence evolution, are Markov models that describe changes over evolutionary time. These models describe evolutionary changes in macromolecules, such as DNA sequences or protein sequences, that can be represented as sequence of symbols. Substitution models are used to calculate the likelihood of phylogenetic trees using multiple sequence alignment data. Thus, substitution models are central to maximum likelihood estimation of phylogeny as well as Bayesian inference in phylogeny. Estimates of evolutionary distances are typically calculated using substitution models. Substitution models are also central to phylogenetic invariants because they are necessary to predict site pattern frequencies given a tree topology. Substitution models are also necessary to simulate sequence data for a group of organisms related by a specific tree.

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